President Barrack Obama, I wish you the best.
Time is slow for those who wait for good things to happen and it was indeed slow for me as I eagerly waited for the twentieth of January 2009 to arrive so that Barrack Obama the man I respect and admire for his exceptional demeanour that saw him win the election against a lot off odds, could be inaugrated. Since I am one of his avid supporters with a lot of widgets dedicated to him on my blog, I would have loved to attend his inaugration ball but unfortunately I can't attend because of financial constraints but I will be there at the inaugration in my mind and heart, cheering him on as he stands on the highest pedestal in the world. In my mind I will be cheering him on using his own election campaign creed, " Yes Obama, you can. Yes Obama, you can." In my heart I will be cheering him with my own wishful thinking, "Yes, Obama, you are the man who will heal the world and bring peace, love and happiness unto the whole world." At the back of my mind I can't help imagining what he will be remembered for when his term in office is over. Will he be remembered for extricating America from Iraq, or for preventing Pakistan from dissolving into nuclear-armed chaos or for easing the tension with Iran or for rebuilding the US economy? Or perhaps failing to do all, or any of those? Well, there are good and bad possibilities everyone, remember life is so full of twists and turns that along the way may result in a person being remembered for an entirely different issue from the one he/she intended in the first place. My imaginations of what the world will become with Obama at its helm are all good but they are just that, imaginations, it is now up to him to write the history of his tenure in office in such a way that he will be remembered in a good way. The ball is now in your court Mr President, sir.
Today Barack Obama will become the most powerful man in the world and it's not just the USA which is expecting him to deliver them from their problems but the whole wide world is expecting a lot from him. For starters he is faced with a financial crisis worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s and unfortunately there is no wand that the new President can wave to magic this situation away so coping with the financial crisis will definately dominate the first part of his term of office. The ebb and flow of presidential fame are often at one with the ebb and flow of the economy, so Obama, the 44th holder of the USA Presidential office will be defined by his handling of the present economic crisis. This is something that needs his urgent attention so that the many Americans who voted for him can continue to believe that, "Yes, he can." For you to appreciate just how grave the problem of the economic crisis that he has to solve is let me furnish you with the details. A crumbling housing market has left millions of Americans facing foreclosure, income inequality is at its greatest, and a credit squeeze has pushed homes, student loans and even cars out of the reach of many families. To make matters worse the bottom fell out of the financial markets in September 2008, swallowing up people’s retirement savings and resulting in a very high surge in unemployment. As a result of these darkening economic conditions, Americans have become both angry and frightened, angry because of the excesses and stupidities of Wall Street and frightened because as the malaise has spread beyond the financial community to the real economy they have begun to suffer directly. That fear shows in a catastrophic loss of consumer confidence. The Bush administration deed try its best to rescue the situation by looking back at history to the Great Depression of the 1930s and drawing lessons from how Franklin D. Roosevelt did it back then. It sprang into action, rescuing banks so that depositors don't lose any money and pumping liquidity into the system so that the banks can continue lending. But if the financial institutions are probably past the very worst of the crisis, their recovery has hardly begun. Meanwhile the real economy is still very unstable. So the first challenge for the new President will be to help Americans recover their sense of optimism in the US economy. But there is something even bigger stalking the US economy and that is the fact that the US economy has increasingly lived beyond its means which shows up in the huge current account deficit, shows up too in a large fiscal deficit and a very low household savings. The USA has been able to have a very high standard of living beyond its means by borrowing and not only borrowing but borrowing big because other countries have been prepared to lend to it and by so doing the USA has mortgaged its future to overseas lenders who could pull their money out at the slightest whiff of a budget crisis, or simply if they come up with a better alternative for investing their money. So the challenge facing the 44th president is to explain to Americans that the country needs to become less
dependent on others for physical resources, most notably oil, but more importantly less dependent on the rest of the world for financial resources. To wean the country off such dependence will be even harder than shepherding it through the financial crisis. It needs to get saving again both at a national and family level. The US economy remains huge, flexible and powerful but it has undermined its own strength by its self-indulgence and those of us who like and admire the USA, as I do, would feel more comfortable were the new President to start nudging the country towards a more sustainable economic future.
Some 46 million US citizens – out of just over 300 million – have no health insurance, and in President Obama’s election he promised to offer coverage to everyone for the first time since Bill and Hillary Clinton’s failed attempt to get a deal in the early Nineties. This is no easy thing but if the relevant people cooperate, yes, he can do it. There is also the issue of social security that he needs to take care of.
President Obama will balance precariously atop an economic see-saw. On one side, there is an urgency to use government money to ease the financial hardship and to reflate the economy. On the other side of the see-saw, Mr Obama’s room for manoeuvre is crimped by the budget deficit, already expanded twice to reflect the nationalisations of mortgage giants and the signing of the $700bn banking bail-out package. Faced with much lower than expected tax receipts because of the recession, President Obama could find that longer-term spending priorities – from subsidies for
alternative energy, through universal healthcare to social security reform – have to be postponed. One of the problems he faces will be the expectation that a new Administration can make a swift and material difference to the country's economic prospects. But even helpful policies take time to have effect. Fortunately, however, economies are self-healing. While 2009 does look very difficult for the US economy, with most predictions suggesting it will shrink overall, there are reasonably solid hopes for a recovery in 2010.
As if the economic crisis is not enough, the international community is expecting the US and its new leader to
do more than get its own house in order but also put the whole world in order. After eight years of a Bush administration which divided, ignored or patronised most of the world's nations, world leaders are bubbling with excitement at the prospect of a more creative, transatlantic partnership with President Barack Obama. Where George W. Bush pronounced, bulldozed and failed, Barack Obama is expected to listen, cooperate and then decide.
These are the issues that President Obama has to face internationally.
AFGHANISTAN
First and foremost is the seven year war against the Talibans in Afghanistan. The US invasion of Afghanistan toppled the Taliban and installed a democratic government that gives no shelter to al-Qa’ida but still USA is far from pronouncing victory in Afghanistan since the military situation in that country has deteriorated sharply and Osama Bin Laden is still at large. President Obama has already pledged additional US troops to help beat back a resurgent Taliban but negotiation with less militant Taliban leaders is being mooted as a promising tactic. The world expects Obama to deal with the war in Afghanistan and restore peace.
IRAQ
Then there is the Iraq war that made Bush so unpopular. Iraqis, with the exception of the Kurds, will in general be overjoyed to see the back of President Bush because polls have always revealed that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein was popular outside the Sunni community but the US military occupation was never accepted. From the very start back in 2003 President Obama opposed the invasion of Iraq. In line with that initial opposition to the attack of Iraq he promised to withdraw a great bulk of US forces from the country, giving a rigid deadline of 16 months for all troops to leave. The Iraqi government is confidently demanding that the US withdraw its combat troops from the cities at the end of June 2009 and from Iraq entirely at the end of 2011 and that fits in perfectly with Obama's deadline. What is still to be considered is the size and the role of the US military presence that will necessarily remain in Iraq. Once Bush's self-destructive policy of confrontation is reversed and Obama talks diplomatically and seriously to Iran and Syria who have been making sure that the US occupation of Iraq never stabilises then one of the main sources of instability in Iraq will disappear.
THE MIDDLE EAST
Iran, has persisted with its domestic nuclear programme despite sanctions and tough rhetoric from the Bush administration and much of the international community. With intelligence agencies unable to be certain how close Iran is to being able to make a nuclear bomb, or whether it intends to build one, there are no easy decisions for the new USA President. By defusing the Iran crisis President Obama could create a markedly better atmosphere in the region, including progress in the Israel-Palestinian conflict. President Obama was attacked on the campaign trail for being willing to talk to “America’s enemies”, meaning Iran, but those who attacked him about that are unable to show that their solution of attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities would work. Because of that attack he might be a bit reluctant to engage with Tehran, on the grounds that he has a much better chance of building an international coalition to stop Iran building nuclear weapons.
The Bush administration made a late, but ineffectual, push to secure a new peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians, but the recent political upheaval in Israel has shown that the Middle East crisis is far from over. Bush has left for his successor a good starting point for negotiation for an Israeli-Palestinian peace process, however flawed, than Clinton left for him after the collapse of Camp David. It is beset with problems including the control of Gaza by Hamas, whom President Obama has said he won't talk to unless they transform their stance. And many Palestinians, their hopes raised and dashed so often before, are anyway sceptical if an Obama presidency will make much difference. The Middle East and the rest of the world hopes that he will at least make the Middle East a first term priority unlike what Bush and several other presidents before him did.
PAKISTAN
Pakistan hopes that President Obama will promote global peace and stability and their opinion matter because Pakistan is the crucible of south Asia whose stability is key to containing the spread of Islamic militancy. President Obama once talked of India and Pakistan finding a solution to the Kashmir problem. He said Pakistan needed to concentrate on dealing with militants, rather than the perceived threat from India. Many thought it was just a statement, but some in India believed he was proposing a US involvement in the issue. More than a year ago, Obama angered Pakistan by voicing his support for airstrikes against al-Qa'ida militants inside
the country on the border with Afghanistan and even the deployment of troops if Islamabad "cannot or will not act" against them. His promise to "take out" militants in the tribal areas was not well received.
RUSSIA
Vladimir Putin’s Russia has asserted itself anew as an aggressive regional power, suppressing some internal dissent, using its importance as a major supplier of oil to pressure neighbours, and finally using military force to humble Georgia in a conflict that put territorial disputes back on the international political agenda.
John McCain had advocated throwing Russia out of the G8 economic grouping, but the new Democratic administration will be wary of turning Russia into a pariah nation when its co-operation is required on so many other international security issues. President Obama will no doubt hope that the falling oil price and the domestic effects of the global economic crisis will crimp Mr Putin’s room for manoeuvre but unfortunately it won’t necessarily make him more predictable.
LATIN AMERICA
Latin America hopes that from now on the treatment of immigrants in the United
States will be more humane. It hopes that under President Obama, legalising the estimated 15 million illegal workers in the US and introducing a temporary worker programme, as well as securing borders will be taken as a priority. Pending free trade agreements, drug trafficking and energy policy are just some of many regional issues that need urgent attention and all of them require that President Obama "extend a hand" to Latin America, as he promised in his campaign.
THE EU
The EU is looking forward to a closer and more trusting cooperation between the United States and Europe. France is very eager to work with Obama and happy that the Bush administration which orchestrated a bullying campaign of denigration of all things French after Paris had actively opposed the invasion of Iraq in March 2003 is now gone. Poland and the Czech Republic hope that President Obama will ignore Democratic Party misgivings and push ahead with the Bush administration's plans for an anti-missile defence and radar shield based in Poland and the Czech Republic. The
shield which was angrily opposed by Moscow is likely to become a key litmus test of future US and European dealings with Russia. Most people think that an Obama presidency was likely to bump against fundamental differences of interest between Europe and the US on issues ranging from trade, to climate change and how to
handle a more assertive or belligerent Russia.
AFRICA
Africa was almost invisible in President Obama's campaign position papers, with references to Sudan, AIDS and aid all largely indistinguishable from those of John McCain but that didn't stop Africans from pledging their support with so much enthusiasm that at times it seemed to be an African, not an American election. Africa hopes that President Obama will take steps to eradicate poverty in this continent by helping all African countries to come up with capacity-building sustainable development programmes as well as help Africa to bridge the digital divide. It also expects President Obama to continue what Bush started concerning combating AIDS in Africa. Most African countries are thinking that since President Obama's father was an African he will be very generous in giving aid to African countries but that expectation is bound to clash with reality because it won't be entirely up to him, his hands will be tied in a foreign policy agreed upon by Congress and Senate. Personally I am hoping that President Obama will be able to inspire African leaders to embrace democracy and follow democratic principles. President Obama is feted as a symbol, as a communicator and as an agent of change, and many suspect his greatest impact in Africa is likely to be limited to the first of those three. What the reality would be will unfold as he starts playing the ball which is now in his court.
One global issue that stands out which he needs to take action on as soon as possible is that of climate change. While scientists continue to argue that climate change is the transcendent threat to civilisation, environmentalists fear that the issue could be pushed down the international agenda, due to an economic crisis that could make countries reluctant to do anything that might curb growth. Where the Bush administration usually stood aloof, Mr Obama has promised to kick-start international negotiations, which could include widening the nascent systems of carbon caps and trading schemes. The new president will also be pushing the US to do its part, under the promise of “energy independence” for the nation, with new money for alternative fuels. Bringing in a low-carbon economy is very near the top of President Obama's list of priorities. It was bottom of the priority list of George W Bush, the oilman son of an oilman father, surrounded by oilmen cronies, and the shift President Obama so strongly symbolises will be felt here as much as anywhere. President Obama might charge off into a low-carbon future with all the fantastic energy and scientific inventiveness that built the atom bomb first and put a man on the Moon first by building the smart grid. But he will also have to decide on whether to disappoint green campaigners by pushing for more coal power plants and using offshore drilling as a stop-gap measure to reduce reliance on foreign oil. The world's effort at countering global warming was held back for eight critical years by George W Bush. Barack Obama's America might yet lead the way forward, even if it is not quite in the way people are currently expecting.
That in brief is what the whole world is expectng from President Obama and as you can see the man has all the world's problems on his shoulder and I pray that he will be able to tackle them all and heal the world.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
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