Zimbabwe: Assess damage and draw a tentative road map for post-conflict reconstruction

Zimbabwe is like a country that was in civil war. The political conflict in the country which is a result of undemocratic practices, injustice and the abuse of human rights by Mugabe and his government and which was played out against a backdrop of weak systems of governance, hyper-inflation and deep poverty resulted in economic and human costs that are as extremely high as those of a country in civil war. Therefore in trying to revive the nation it should be treated in the same way that one would treat a nation that was in civil war, the post-conflict reconstruction processes involved should be the same. National healing efforts to take care of post-traumatic disorders caused by this political conflict in Zimbabwe should be put in place.

The country collapsed as a result of long term degenerative politics marked by a loss of control over the economic and political space. The tolerance, resilience and coping capacities of Zimbabweans which are manifold and legendary allowed the decay in the country to go on unchecked. This political conflict was characterised by a generalised collapse of standards in the professions. It short circuited the rules that keep human interaction constructive and predictable and wiped out the most positive forms of social capital like ethics and professionalism. It had the effect of switching behaviour from an equilibrium in which there are expectations of honesty to one in which there is expectation of corruption and opportunistic behaviour. Once the reputation for honest interaction had been lost, the incentive for honest behaviour was greatly weakened and the cost of enforcing transactions increased exponentially. Therefore in the post-conflict reconstruction process the rebuilding of standards in the professions should be at the core of restoring social capital. Failure to meet this institutional challenge would doom the efforts of the post-conflict reconstruction process.

This political conflict as would be expected has harmful spillover effects on neighboring countries. The flow of refugees from Zimbabwe to neighboring countries resulted in heightened insecurity and ethnic tensions in those countries, the worst result being xenophobia in South Africa in 2008. So this conflict is not only costly to Zimbabwe but is also costly to the entire SADC region. It also led to the spread of cholera to neighboring countries and tarnished the reputation of the SADC region in the minds of potential investors. So it is in the best interests of the SADC region to help in whatever way they can during the post-conflict reconstruction of Zimbabwe and ensure that there is no repeat of such a conflict not only in Zimbabwe but in the whole region.

Within Zimbabwe the political conflict resulted in state institutions that are so weakened that they exhibit little capacity to carry out their traditional functions. So the post-conflict reconstruction should involve the repair and reconstruction of physical and economic infrastructures as well as external interventions aimed at rebuilding weakened institutions. Those critical interventions should include reviving the economy, constructing the framework for democratic governance, rebuilding and maintaining key social infrastructure and planning for financial normalisation. Recovery of the country requires incremental planning, careful and realistic policy reforms as well as consideration and respect of the GPA agreement that was signed between the leaders of the three parties involved in the coalition government. The post-conflict reconstruction process should have explicit objectives such as supporting the transition from a one-party government to a coalition government, supporting the resumption of economic and social development, supporting human and institutional capacity building and establishing special investment funds to maintain social cohesion during the period of economic adjustment and poverty reduction and decentralisation. These post-conflict operations will require intensive monitoring to ensure their continued relevance, effectiveness and efficiency.

It is very unfortunate that the post-conflict reconstruction will operate amid social tensions and suspicions between key actors within the country which can and does influence relations among the involved international parties. It is also unfortunate that the political conflict altered both the level and the structure of economic activity in ways which can persist even beyond the political conflict. The devastation of human, social and physical capital in the country at the moment require very strong conflict-mitigating policies to be put in place. These policies should have a high degree of flexibility, be implemented speedly and the reconstruction projects and programs monitored and evaluated speedly.

The speed of the evolution toward normalcy and the benchmarks for evaluating progress will be contentious but I tentatively propose that possible indicators should include:
1. Macro-economic stability and its likely sustainability.
2. The effectiveness with which instututional arrangements and the political system will be coping with the tensions, schisms and behaviours within the coalition government and eliminating further causes of political conflict in the country.
3. The recovery of private sector confidence as measured by the investment ratio.
4. The recovery of all the essential systems in the country like the health delivery system, the water system, the education system, the refuse collection system and the telecommunications system among many others.
5. The establishment of effective agricultural habits and the realisation of the commercial farm owners that they carry the burden of feeding the nation and so should produce come rain or drought.